Skipper

My picture reflects just a little of the bemusement Cameron must be feeling, alongside his turkey of a candidate, as Thursday approaches. The Rennard allegations are ugly and it's hard to believe Clegg knew nothing about something which apparently was common knowledge in senior Lib Dem circles. But it seems not to be affecting the chances of candidate Mike Thornton: the latest Populous poll for The Times shows Lib Dems flourishing, (with their previous poll shown in brackets):

Lib Dems 33% (+2%)
Conservatives 28% (-6%)
UKIP 21% (+8%)
Labour 11% (-8%)

We see Clegg's party climbing by 2% but the Tories plunging by 6%- very possibly reflecting voter dismay at Osborne's embarrassing loss of his much prized triple A rating. This event, comparable to the Tory's 1992 'Black Wednesday', blows a huge hole in the Cameron-Osborne's credibility. After Black Wednesday their ratings collapsed and stayed collapsed until 2005; it won't happen this time but it is, to a degree, as significant as Eastleigh. Martin Kettle, in his splendid piece on Friday argued the by-election's importance is pivotal.