Skipper

It's two years now since Ed Miliband won the Labour leadership in competition with his brother and he has had to survive a fairly horrific drubbing from the right-wing press not to mention doubts from within, including, it has to be said, my own. I thought David lacking in political courage- he should have used his power to bring down the disastrous Brown-so I opted for Ed in the vote. But his mawkish early efforts to communicate made me doubt my judgement I have to confess. So now we see him with his third conference as leader. According to yesterday's papers he thinks the expected personal attacks on him from the Tories, as 'weird,weak, callow and much too red' is a 'sure sign I'm succeeding'. Is the government rattled by him? Hmmmm.

It's true Ed is now better placed than previous years in that: the party is (still) relatively united; he has a ten point lead in the polls; and has had a few notable 'wins' over leading the attack on Murdoch over phone hacking and establishing an influential distinction between 'predator and producer'(responsible and irresponsible) forms of capitalism. His failure to 'break through' in way Blair and Cameron managed tends to encourage comparisons with failed Tory leaders like Hague and IDS, both of whom were replaced after losing elections rather badly. Are we witnessing the early stages of a Labour IDS? This is the question party members almost dare not ask.

Some suggest- mostly the right-wing columns- that his relations with colleagues could be better. It's true that his shadow chancellor, Ed Balls is still loathed by many as a thuggish clone of Gordon Brown-the Lib Dems suggest he would have to go in a Lib-Lab coalition- but he dismisses this as rubbish, pointing out that they have worked happily together for the past two decades. It might be significant however that it is Miliband who is leading on the possible statutory separation of retail and investment banking as recommended by the Vickers Report.

But does he appear as credible prime minister in waiting? Well, the polls say not, by 63 to 28%, a major headache for him and his aides. He is also perceived less able than Cameron to take 'tough decisions'- a crucial requirement in popular attitudes towards a potential prime minister. But he is seen as more in touch than Cameron with 'ordinary people' and in 'caring for every sector of of society'. Most important of all, his Yougov approval rating since January has improved by 31 points while Cameron's has declined by 25. Ed seems to be slowly winning the battle for acceptance and approval but much still remains to be done before he can realistically think about adding the keys to Number Ten to his keyring. Yesterday on Andrew Marr, Mathew Parris admired Ed's calm serious dignity. Today Jackie Ashley suggests we accept that this man is a serious 'north London intellectual' who is genuinely interested in ideas rather than a grandstanding PR obsessed celebrity politician. I tend to agree.