Skipper

Why is Cameron banging on about dole scroungers, lone parents and 'dependency culture'. The Guardian suggests this speech marks the 'end of compassionate Conservatism' and this is possibly true,always assuming the concept was ever genuinely entertained by this shallow PR exponent of opportunism. My theory is that Dave is beginning to quake in his Jermyn St shoes because of the spectre of a noisy, very clever and exceptionally cocky politician called Nigel Farage. His flag-waving to the right-wing of his party is designed to achieve three things.

1. He wants to re-assure those in his party furious and frustrated by the coalition alliance with the Lib-Dems. After thirteen years in Opposition, the new wave of Tory MPs entered parliament spitting tacks about the welfare system, the size of the state and waffly lefty ideas on health and education. Once in government they discovered what they thought would be a Conservative government with only an irrelevant little tail found in practice they find this tail has been far more effective than they ever imagined. The 'Quad' of Cameron, Alexander, Clegg and Osborne, meet regularly as an inner Cabinet to lead the government. Without the yellow votes blue policies cannot be implemented. Cameron and Osborne know this of course, together with most sensible people, but those on the right of the political spectrum are often unable to distinguish between the real and the desired. Going on about welfare dependency won't change anything but he's trying to tell his critics that when they have a majority after 2015, their dreams will come true.

2. He wants to stifle at birth a rumoured movement to have him replaced as leader by someone more agreeable to the right; someone like the elfin Michael Gove for example. So many commentators have interpreted Gove's scrapping of GSCEs as a covert leadership bid that even Cameron seems to have been spooked. He wants to convince any waverers that he is the Real Tory Thing.

3. But most of all Dave wants to head off at the pass those current and possibly future supporters of the egregious Nigel. Prospect magazine this month has a piece by Peter Kellner which shows just how delicately balanced is competition for votes on the right. His Yougov polls show UKIP to be more popular than at any other time in its history and poised to make a large leap forward. 40% of Tory voters say they might or will consider voting UKIP. This reflects the 46% of Tories who want to leave the EU and 62% who want all immigration to be stopped. Cameron's pollsters will have found the same thing and so a full scale assault on right-wing themes is to be expected. Today it's benefits and lone parents; in the future the EU and immigration. Stand by for operation 'Stop UKIP.