Skipper

I was interested to read the following excellent paragraph in the Economist, 27th September, which sums up som much of politics and the constant noise which surrounds it. The key things are quite simple, as is explained below.

“Elections are decided by a few fundamentals, such as the political cycle (the longer the government has been in power, the more hostile the public will feel towards it), the economic cycle (the more prosperous the country is feeling, the more likely they are to vote for the government) and, above all, the party leaders. Perhaps the only meaningful thing a political party can ever do to help its fortunes is elect a leader who has that "prime ministerial" quality that is hard to define but easy to recognise when one sees it.”

In connection with Ed Miliband's conference speech the columnist notes that most successful leaders of the Opposition-Blair, Cameron, for example have shown their leadership qualities almost immediately. It's true Thatcher had a difficult two years but she had to overcome immense prejudice against her gender. Ed's truly awful poll ratings to date suggest he's not yet passed the acceptability test and that, like Foot, Kinnock, Hague, IDS and Howard, before him, he will struggle to make an impact and fail the electoral test into the bargain.

I hope this is not the case of course, and Ed has overturned a number of negative judgments about him already, but will he succeed in his ambitious objective of pulling the nation to the left? So far the economic crisis has not strengthened the left but rather the right. No 'left wing' movement has been spawned by the mismanagement of banks and national economies, apart from the single exception of Denmark. I think Ed's critique and proffered solutions would greatly assist the nation, but I fear Ed, to date has not shown the sort of persuasive skills required for such a renaissance in our political culture.

A second set of lapidary words was provided by Jonathan Freedland,28th Septembeer, who quoted an old teacher of his who used to say:

‘People don’t believe in ideas, they believe in people who believe in ideas.’

I fear this is true and I fear Ed has not yet shown, unlike Blair at a comparative stage in his career, definite signs he can get people to believe in him.