Skipper

James Forsyth in The Spectator writes an interesting piece in the current issue. He points out that the party best placed in the referendum is Labour with the message: 'if you don't like the coalition, vote for us'. He thinks a 600 seat gain in local elections would be a good result though argues that local elections are of scant concern to the other two parties; itr is the referendum which has taken on 'immense importance'. Forsyth insists that if the 'yes' vote wins:

'Cameron's relationship with the Conservative partry would be damaged beyond repair He could be the man who failed to beat Gordon Brown, conceded a referendum on electoral reform to the liberal Democrats and then lost it. The party would soon start casting around for an alternative champion.'

Last year, says Forsyth, the plan was to remain above the fray- Dave was relaxed about the result. but Tories are panicking, thinking AV would consign them to the margins of political life and Cameron, reacting to the pressure has made winning the 'no' vote his top priority: Central Office says 'it is all about AV'.

As for Clegg, if he loses, as seems likely at time of writing, his plans are to head back to Brussels as a commissioner in 2014.