Skipper

Riddell's wonderful cartoon captures something of the Liberal Democrats dilemma, not to mention Clegg's. Rawnsley lists their woes: firstly they came 6th in the Barnsley by-election, their lowest ever result in such a contest and behind UKIP, the BNP and an independent miner candidate. All in all, 5 out of 6 voters in May 2010 decided not to vote that way in the by-election.

Secondly, this has to be a pointer for the May local elections, which, for better or worse, are always viewed as a pointer to what happens during Westminster elections. Thirdly the 'No' to AV camp is now 10 points in the lead, meaning that in the wake of awful local elections, the very rationale for entering the coalition will be snatched rudely from Lib Dem hands. Fourthly Clegg's poll rating is plumbing the depths, his effigy has been burnt in the streets and Rawnsley estimates that once the softer support is discounted 'core' support is no higher than 5%.

The problem is that the party of protest is now a party of government; protesters can find a handy little protest party seeking to get bigger in the form of UKIP, as Barnsley voters discovered. Personally I find Nigel Farage almost repellent but I have to admit he is a nimble and clever politician who might well fulfill his stated objective for his party of replacing the LDs as the 'third' political force in the UK. I say this also because each major European country now manifests a growing right-wing party which eschews violence. Officially so does the BNP but those videos of their supporters fighting on the pavements of Barking last May, not to mention their 'brutes in suits' image, rather opens the field up to Nigel's really very nicely presented outfit.

Where to for the Lib Dems? Definitely not upwards for the short and medium term future and maybe Simon Jenkins' prediction they are headed for oblivion will be fulfilled. A breakaway faction from the Coalition might have a chance of surviving as Clegg goes down with his ship but so far there are only a few discordant voices- no sign of schisms. Rawnsley suggests their only hope is to hope trhey can benefit from Colaition success in 2015:

Their best hope is to win credit if the coalition is broadly seen to have been a success by the time of the next election. By demonstrating that they are no longer a wasted vote and can be credible wielders of power, the Lib Dems may then find a new constituency among centre-ground and swing voters, including some who have not taken them seriously in the past and have reluctantly voted Labour or Tory instead because they didn't believe the Lib Dems had a chance.