Skipper

I woke up this morning to financial experts on the today Programme reckoning the chances of a double-dip recession had reduced from one on four to about fifty-fifty.Mervyn King has predicted a much lower economic growth rate for 2011 than had been forecast; 84% of people interviewed believed we are already in recession; and house prices have continued to plummet. Moreover the US economy, we hear, is enjoying the nmost brittle of recoveries and there is talk of more fiscal stimuli being needed.

On Sky TV Barclays' head of global banking told Jeff Randal the risk had increased though added he did not think it would happen. Hmm. Labour's Alistair Darling claims his prescribed antidote of sustained borrowing combined with tough measures to remove half the defict in four years from 2011 was the way to go.

At the moment such claims are vitiated by the fact the party's leadign figures are involved in the leadership contest and the fact that voters will mostly ignore such claims on the grounds that 'they would say that wouldn't they?' But should the double dip arrive suddenly Labour will achieve credibility, Osborne will lose his along with his boss and the unhappy Cable. Then I wonder how long the coalition will have left to run...