Thursday, May 06, 2010

 

Cameron's Election to Lose Now


Polling days can be very slow news days. On Radio 4 this morning they replayed an interview from an earlier election when some desperate news-editor sent someone to interview Ted Heath's milkman. 'What sort of milk does he buy?' gasped the radio hack. 'Oh, usual kind.' replied milkman. 'Have you ever met Mr Heath?' persisted the BBC man. 'No' said the milkman.

So Nigel Farage crashing out of the skies was a godsend to the news channels and, I just wonder, will the resultant sympathy vote- he should not have walked away virtually unhurt from what was left of that plane- might help him defeat John Bercow. I'm all set for tonight with wine, mates and nibbles but what seems likely? The polls still predict a hung parliament but my gut instinct tells me Ashcroft money, Dave's truly stakhanovite last push and the tendency for polls to over estimate Labour's vote, will, sadly, deliver victory to the Conservatives. Moreover the Liberal Democrat surge now seems to have abated as their final poll rating was not much higher than it was in 2005.

But I am so hoping to be pleasantly surprised. Maybe Labour will edge up to keep Dave's seats well shy of 300 and maybe the aftermath of Cleggmania will seduce a big chunk of those uncommitted voters we read about which might still number 20-30% of those left to vote. I was amused by one speculation I read about that Cameron might try to emulate Salmond in 2007 and, should he win the vote but not have enough seats, fly to London and declare himself winner, even to extent of beginning to drive up the Mall. Now that I would like to see.

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