Skipper

1. Avoid the requirement for another budget before the election- a difficult exercise when you have nothing to give away and any new taxes will only lose votes.

2. Avoid the publication of economic output for the first quarter of this year. Financial pages have been full of gloom recently, suggesting these figures will indicate a fall in output, or that awful eventuality, the 'double dip' recession. Given Brown's prefered narrative of having 'weathered the storm' it would be a disatser if such figures emerged mid campaign

3. Conservative support is falling away at the moment. It's not altogether clear why, but from 44% in October 2009, their poll rating has fallen to 37%, a mere 5 points in front after a period when they enjoyed a 20 point lead.{Stop Press: latest poll says the lead is down to 2% which would be enough to keep Labour in power!] Going soon would capitalize on this good fortune and, even if Labour did not win, it might manage to become the largest party and deny Cameron his long expected victory.

Will it happen? The odds have to be against it. Rumours like this have come and gone in the past. Gordon is not decisive when it comes to elections- remember how he 'bottled' it in October 2007?- and nobody knows how much money Labour has to fight such a snap election. So odds against but, whilst it's just speculation, it does have some substance to it. I personally hope it won't happen as I've planned a visit to the House of Commons with my a students on that day and it would ruin my carefully prepared programme.