Skipper

Former Blairite Cabinet ministers Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt must be feeling depressed tonight as their attempted coup against Gordon Browwn received more raspberries this afternoon and evening than a summer puddding. Their suggested 'secret ballot of Labour MPs' to clarify their support for Brown 'once and for all' has been variously dismissed as 'disgusting' 'ill-timed' 'disloyal' and 'demented'.

That their ballot would probably find against Brown as the best person to lead them into the election is not in doubt. Gordon trails way behind his party in the popularity stakes and a majority of voters in one recent poll could not countenance the idea of another five years of Brown in Downing St. Labour will almost certainly lose anyway but a new leader might minimize the loss and facilitate a speedy comeback. The plotters have been courageous but very naive.

1. There is no constitutional means whereby such a ballot could be held

2. There is no candidate available in the wings- as Blair was in 1994- really keen to stand who is a credible future leader.

3. Hoon and Hewitt cleaarly had not won the support of Cabinet members as most of the lewading ones immediaterly rubbished the plot.

4. A contest would likely involve a number of candidates- certainly the ambitious Ed Balls, at least one of the Milibands and possibly John Cruddas and Alan Johnson. It would be hard fought and wold give an impression of division at trhe time when the party most needs to appear united.

5. It would not be a quick process and its long drawn out nature would wholly subvert the planning of an effective campaign.

6. There is no poll evidence that any other leader would make any major difference to Labour's chances.

In other words, it would be political suicide for Labour to take such advice right now. The time to move was last summer when the brave James Parnell fell on his sword to provide just such an opportunity. However, even though the Cabinet and party knew Gordon was a desperate liability nobody would step up to make Parnell's move the prelude to Brown's removal. Perhaps the final point against it is made by Jonathan Freedland in his article today in which he asserts:

One last thing holds Labour back. Even those who were once his enemies say that he is still the biggest figure on the stage; that he is a heavyweight who made the right decisions when the financial crisis struck; that it would be reckless to cast all that aside when there is – crucially – no polling evidence that any of his rivals would fare any better.

Freedland concludes, damningly:

The only reason Labour is not shoving Brown from the nearest top-floor window is that it lacks the nerve to save its own skin.