Skipper

The intriguing questions facing us become ever more intiguing. Alistair Darling's Pre Budget Report has generally been judged at best a damp sqib- at worst a minor disaster. Andrew Rawnsley reminds us that ther PBR was invented by Gordon to:

'give him two opportunities to deliver a budget every year, two occssions to subject his Cabinet colleagues to his power, two occassions to infuriate Tony Blair by hiding what he was up to, two occasions to make the same announcements of spending promises, and two occasions to boast that he had ended boom and bust.'

Rawnsley goes on to point out that politically the PBR failed to impress the bonds markets who were looking for a credible plan that debt would be reduced. The danger now is that the costs off borrowing for Britain may soar even higher; 'the insurance premium for lending to Britain is now higher than that charged for lending to Slovakia'. Not only did Darling not convince over cuts but his increase in National Insurance was seen as a tax on jobs when unemployment is still rising sharply. The press took fulla critical advantage.

Rawnsley suggests voters were also unimpresed by what seemed to be a precurser to a series of cuts and squeezes. And if the IFS figures are correct each household will have to deliver over two grand a year in lost earnings for a total of eight years until the books are balanced. Oh Lor!

And yet the other story running alongside this is that Labour are catching up the Tories whose lead has slipped from 20 points a year ago to shrinking single figures now. Some opportunists are urging a snap election in March to avoid another budget debacle and take advantage of a voting tendency which will at least avoid wipeout and may deliver a hung parliament out of which Brown might parley a continuation in power. Wiser heads advise this would be precipitate. Professor Paul Whiteley argues the narrowing of the lead is a result of a 'feel good' factor returnng as the economy seems to retun to 'normal'. He questions whether this will continue and says the lead could shrink even more by May.

My own feeling- from the present vantage point- is that Cameron will lead the biggest party after the election and will then become prime minister as Gordon will appear to have 'lost' trhe contest. This would be in precisely the same way as Labour 'lost' in the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections and had to bow to Alex Salmond's SNP minority government.