Monday, September 28, 2009

 

Compass Have Worrying Analysis

(Yes, I know my illustration is absurdly literal, but it was all I could think of)The leftish think tank, Compass, produced a scary headline on the eve of the conference: if Cameron wins, this could mean oblivion for Labour.
Many of us have been thinking this way and that's why so many of us have been wondering if a new leader, even at this stage might minimise the damage to a mere generation instead of maybe two or three. It seems the planned coup, bruited by Martin Kettle of The Guardian and others, has been postponed through lack of interest.

So we are left to contemplate our fate, heartened just a sliver by Mandelson's barnstorming speech to conference today. Would I accept him as PM? You bet I would. He maybe is not very trustworthy or likeable but he is obviously shrewd, capable, committed to Labour and seems to have developed, astonishingly, as a compelling political communicator. Compass reckon Cameron will seek to destroy Labour by constitutional means; one direct and the other indirect. The latter will be the rousing of the Scottish to accept independence if the Tories get in. At present 34% of them would back it and 53% oppose but if the Tories get in an additional 34% would favour casting off into the North Atlantic to declare independence. That would probably swing it and Labour would lose its 45 Scottish seats.

In addition, according to Compass Cameron plans to reduce the number of MPs by 65, predicting:

that Tory plans to cut the number of Westminster seats by 65 will hit Labour hardest of all the main parties because the biggest reduction will be in areas which have seen population flight, including Labour strongholds in Wales and the industrial heartlands.

Compass calls for a 'game changer' of a ploy, suggesting it might be a referendum on voting reform which, because Cameron would oppose it, would show him up as reactionary.

"A referendum moves the party from zero chance of the Tories not losing next May to striking distance of a hung parliament and Labour being the biggest single party. The decision could decide not just Labour's future for one or two parliaments, not even for a generation, but for ever.".

Nick Robinson tonight on the news predicted Gordon had bold things to suggest in his speech tomorrow. It would be nice to think he's capable of something as imaginative and transforming as voting reform, but you'll have to excuse my jaded cynicism. But my fingers are crossed nevertheless.

Comments:
There is probably a further strand to the 'destroy Labour' strategy, which is funding. If the Tories implement a £50k limit on donations and apply it to trades unions, then it will have a massively disproportionate effect on Labour party funding - I've seen the figures somewhere, but cannot find them at the moment.
 
People won't care about voting systems. Most of the British public are far too stupid to even understand the options anyway. Cameron can do as he likes on this.

Destroying the unions - finally - would be an enduring legacy. That they are exempt from these rules is a disgrace in any case. Labour has essentially passed laws to publicly fund unions. And unions fund them. A complete racket. These laws will have to go. And their political power will be ended for good.

The Scottish situation is plainly unfair to any reasonable person who cares for electoral justice. Their MPs(hardcore socialist bigots in most cases) dare to pass laws on our people, and yet destroy the integrity of the union with their "parliament". I would oppose independence. They have no right to destroy the country. The Parliament should be dissolved at the first opportunity.

Electoral areas clearly need reform. It is disgracefully skewed to the left. In the last election the Tories got more votes in England than Labour - and remember that England is the only area that is governed by Westminster at present. Change needed here.

Radical change is required. If Cameron is even considering doing these things then I am more encouraged than before with him. As for Labour. The game is over. They are merely required to lose with dignity.
 
For F*ck sake I was against Independence for Wales I cannot bloody wait now, with luck we will have Scotland and Wales going it alone, and you can shove England up your Arse Mike mate.

What a lot of crap.

Brown has made is speech it was OK, but he came out with the same drivel.

Labour said look at what we have done, and I look around thinking shit why is I'm in poverty then.

Why is it when my electric bill came out this week I said to the wife how the shit do we pay for this.

the fact is I'm now severely disabled and boy it's hard to live, Brown says get a job and believe me have I tried, sad fact is who wants a cripple working for them.

I'm sorry I cannot vote New labour and this is New Labour...
 
I mean Welsh independence is too funny for words. Even the Plaid Cymru idiots don't want that.

You'll know real poverty if that happens "mate".
 
F*ck you do talk some crap mate.
 
Not exactly the most articulate are you Robert? Is English your second language, or are you just a bit dim?
 
The fact is that, despite Brown's promise to put AV referendum into the manifesto, this is still meaningless. It would take someone with a very short memory to forget that the promise for PR referendum was in the 1997-2001 manifesto and yet came to absolutely nothing. They technically lied about that and I have very little faith they will follow through this time (although, my faith on them forming the next government is even lower). Even Lords Reform has been slow going and I listened to Jack Straw at a recent Guardian seminar discuss(relatively) radical reform, but without even the slightest hint of committing to it until the latter part of the next Parliament.
The only way Brown could do something truly transforming would be to legislate on a referendum, which would force Cameron to repeal if he became PM, showing him as stifling debate, or follow it through and run the risk of real electoral change in this country.
 
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