Monday, November 10, 2008

 

Reflections on Obama's Win and some Predictions

Anyone wanting to read an analysis of the US election reults to look here but I offer here a few observations about the significance of the victory by Obama.

1. The rest of the world will queue up to be the first to be greeted by him in the White Hiouse come January 2009. In 2000 it was Chirac who broke away from the pack to effect the touch-down. This time Gordon Brown will be trying hard to establish pole position. If he fails Cameron will heap ridicule upon him.

2. His first six months should see the rescinding of many Bushite measures. I reckon abolition of Guantanamo Bay will be the first and I would guess his people are already working on it.

3. His honeymoon will be protracted, as was Blair's, but it will fdae and by thnis time next year the ranks of his allies will have thinned and those of enemies thickened out to include some of his own people who will accuse him of betrayal of their inflated expectations.

4. Nevertheless I expect him to be a two term president. Perhaps I'm still living in that bubble of euphoric hope caused by the win, but I believe he will deliver sufficiently to get the second term. The Republicans, anyway, are not going to offer much of a challenge for a while.

5. Sarah Palin will be the early favourite as candiate in 2012 but I expect her to make more gaffes and to be discredited before the chnce to run arises.

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