Thursday, November 06, 2008
Labour likely to lose Glenrothes
During Gordon's troubled late summer, it was said Cabinet members despairing of Brown, were prepared to give him one last chance to pull his leadership around. Glenrothes was mentioned by many commentators as a key test of his success in managaing to do this. I discerned just a hint of the same sentiment in Harmon's warning recently. In Gordon's backyard, with a huge Labour majority, this would normally be an automatic victory. But these are not normal times. Gordon has disappointed Scotland which has fallen in love with Alex Salmond's minority SNP administration.
A couple of days ago Ian McWhirter reckoned Labour had fought hard for the constituency but regal visits by Gordon and Sarah, were no substitute for activist knockers on doors and these had been in very short suppply. Now the SNP seem to have a lead Labour cannot overhaul and defeat looks the most likely outcome. This will not be received as a major disaster but after Crewe and Alsager and Glasgow East, a third successive loss of a Labour seat will put an end to Brown's mini-revival which accompanied the financial crisis.
The hoopla over Obama's win has to some extent obscured Gordon's predicament but in its wake reality will dawn again. Not only do they have a wonderful, talented new president, but we still have trhe same old depressive, lack lustre prime minister. The Political Betting site summed up Labour's poll position recently and it doesn't look good. It's back to harsh reality time for Gordon I fear.