Friday, November 21, 2008


'Global Trends' Report Paints Sombre Picture

On top of Paul Kennedy's little essay on America's need to rely on more than 'soft power' last Tuesday we have today's US Intelligence report that predicts the demise of America as a super-power. The National Intelligence Council discerns a 'dramatic' shift for its last report in 2004 when it foresaw a continuation of the USA as superpower. Now the NIC expects:

1. Emerging countries like China, India and Brazil to ease the US aside as wealth moves from west to east.

2. The EU to continue 'losing out' in the geopolitical power game through its lack of unity.

3. There to be more conflict over diminishing resources by 2025.

4. International organisations to remain 'ramshackle' an unable to cope by the above date.

5. More nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and heightened risks of nuclear warfare.

6. A retreat to state control of economiucs in the wake of the 2008 'globalized' crisis.

7. The idea that democratic capitalism will continue to spread worldwide, to be proved to be merely a complacent aspiration.

On balance it sees the US as no longer 'dominant' but more of a 'first among equals in a more fluid and evenly balanced world.' None of this will suprise us especially though it is perhaps worth reflecting that George Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld cheerfully assumed it possible for the US to throw its weight around unilaterally just at the point when such behaviour had ceased to be sustainable.

Some of those of us who were never great fans of Reaganomics might feel that No 6 should read "An advance to state control of economiucs in the wake of the 2008 'globalized' crisis."
I won't argue the point.
1 Part true. No threat to US power.
2 Good
3 US Military spending will put them in good position in this race.
4 Good
5 Stop them. Obama will or Israel will. Either way no problem.
6 No. Socialism doesn't work. It will merely make the problem worse. America became the greatest country in the world by encouraging enterprise. Too many Americans remember this truth to allow them to pass along the European route to oblivion.
7 No. Since Reagan(ie. 5 Republican terms), democracy and capitalism have flourished and spread. Intelligent and assertive US foreign policy will continue this trend.

For Obama, read Jimmy Carter with a suntan. Four years of telling us America's limitations and how brilliant the rest of the world is. Four years of pseudo socialism. And four years of bowing to facism the globe over. The American people will be ready for something very radical in four years. And they can be a great nation once again.
It seems a little precipitate to predict such a concatination of calamity before he has even taken up the reins of office. Perhaps naively- I know you'd agree with that- I prefer to sustain the hope that none of these things will come to pass.
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