Skipper

Back in August 2006 a poll was published showing Conservatives at 40% while Labour languished at 31%; this then startling statistic was enough to spark the 'autumn coup' by Brownites against Tony Blair. The coup did not topple Blair, of course, but it did secure his agreement to go within a year. The polls now are so much worse yet I'd venture that they do not encourage plotters as much as that of two years ago. Yesterday we read in the Sunday Times that Tories were on 45%, Labour on 25% and Lib Dems on 18%.

Today in The Guardian, their poll shows figures of 44-29-19: a slightly lower lead for Cameron but scarcely less depressing for Gordon who must be returning from his hols more miserable- and boy, does he do miserable- than when he left for Suffolk, a few weeks back. However, if his chief obsession is power and hanging onto it- and I'm fairly sure it is- he must be cheered by some other aspects of these polls.

Most obviously, he must be pleased that in the ST poll, when respondents were asked 'Would David Miliband make a better prime minister than Gordon Brown?' they answered, 21% for David and 38% for Gordon, with a bigger proportion opting for the latter among Labour voters. The Guardian poll also shows the public have not yet warmed to Miliband. He edges Gordon on 'wider appeal'and 'looks to the future' but is well beaten in turn on 'more likely to spin' and 'more style than substance'. However, in all six questions asked the sum of the 'don't knows' and the 'neithers' exceeds half of the sample.

So Brown might gain some marginal comfort from such results but it's clear, voters find Miliband an unknown quantity. But Brown's broader comfort must be derived from the fact that, unlike the situation inn August 2006 when Gordon was pulling the strings behind Tom Watson and others, there is no clear successor to him. This fact will percolate through the ranks of delegates to the Manchester conference during the next week or so. The plotters may decide to show their hands but, more likely, I'd guess, is that they'll heave one more weary sigh and realise, in the absence of an obvious Dauphin who can command popular support, they are stuck with Gordon till 2010, meltdown or no meltdown.