Skipper

Occasionally, it seems to me, our glacially slow and often unresponsive political system, is revealed as not too bad at all: at least it provides for peaceful change. South Ossetia and Abkhazia have been virtually autonomous units within the Republic of Georgia for over a decade but not without a degree of fighting. Given that contiguous North Ossieta is a province of Russia, its southern counterpart has Russian support, as has Abkhazia.

Georgia's extended flirtation with the idea of joining NATO has compounded Russian dislike of the country which, between 1922 and 91 was part of the USSR. Neither region, however, has de jure status in terms of wider recognition and the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvilli had reintegration of these areas as a longstanding political goal. For this reason it is thought that the Georgian attack on South Ossetia was well planned, coinciding with the Olympic Games when Putin would be away representing Russia.

But if Mikheil expected a painless readjustment of national territory he has already been disappointed. Volunteers from North Ossetia have surged down to assist their cousins and Russia has bombed the town of Gori, incidentally, birthplace of Joseph Stalin. Georgia's population of 4.6 million and army of 11,000 is no match for Russia's 141 million and army of 395,000 equipped accordingly.

The fact that Russia has spent years pounding Chechyna for daring to do what Ossetia has done, will not deter a harsh response in what it regards as its legitimate zone of influence. Georgia's best hope is that NATO and the west will support its actions- something which has already happened- but the dangers here, in the historically fissiparous and violent Caucasus, are either a replay of Chechyna, or a war by proxy between the west and Russia which is about to escalate out of control.