Skipper

On July 10th David Davis faces a severe test in hnius byelection. I have no doubt he'll win against the likes of the Miltant Elvis Party, Mad Cow Girl, the National Front, Eamon 'Fitzy' Fitzpatrick, Ronnie Carrol(is this really the singer once married to Milicent Martin?) and twenty other assorted candidates. With a 5000+ majority and no Labour or Lib Dem opposition, he is bound to win, but he's doing this to make a point on the erosion of civil liberties; if no-one wants to know, it'll be a wash-out. Turnout will consequently be crucial. If it is less than 40% I think it'll be ranked a failure; anything over 50% a kind of success; over 65% a definite victory, a shift in our political culture and look out for your back Posh Dave.

The second byelection is in Glasgow East on 24th July, following the retirement of David Marshall. Martin Kettle points out that this is the seat once held by the famous passionate socialist John Wheatley, on whose era Gordon has written, by all accounts, a rather good history. Labour enjoys a massive majority but as Kettle observes:

To lose such a seat for the first time since 1922 would not just be a spectacular Labour disaster but also an unmissable sign of wider Labour disintegration in Scotland. Not even the very real possibility that the Tories could finish fifth would be any sort of compensation for the loss of such a fortress. Many Glasgow watchers believe for that reason that it won't - quite - happen. They argue that Labour's vote in Scotland is simply more solid than in England. Or they claim that Catholic working-class parts of Glasgow are less volatile than more mixed or Protestant seats like Govan. Or they judge that the 22% swing that the SNP needs - compare the 17.5% swing to the Tories in Crewe and Nantwich - is just too much of an ask.

But given the febrile state of political opinion right now, even the attempt to 'hide' the byelection at the beginning of the school holiday season might not save Labour from yet another disaster. Voters are in a vindictive mood right now with a lot of anger boiling about the economy, fuel prices, inflation, house prices to name only the most obvious, they might choose to express it in an another arse-kicking snub to Gordon Brown. It could be Glasgow will provide the second fascinating by-election upset during the month of July.