Tuesday, April 22, 2008

 

Poll Cheer for Depressed Labour

In his poll analysis in the Telegraph, 12th December 2007 Anthony King, described Labour as in 'free-fall', trailing the Tories by 11 points. Since then the polls varied but generally have stayed below a level likely to deliver victory to the Conservatives. After a brief recovery in January, a succession of problems afflicted the government culminating in the poorly received budget delivered in funereal tones by his Chancellor. Then Dave really took off and Shadow ministers began to think of those cars and red boxes with gleeful smiles of anticipation. Meanwhile, Labour supporters swung(well, me anyway) between a fatalistic acceptance of defeat and a determination not to go down without a fight.

Yet today there are two glimpses of, if not sunshine, then at least a gap in the clouds. The Guardian's ICM poll today shows Cameron's lead cut to just five points, again, enough to lose Labour its majority but enough to deliver nothing more than a hung parliament to the power hungry Tories. I can only assume that Gordon's trip to the States has perked up his image and shown him in a positive light which has overshadowed the huge gaffe over the 10pence tax band issue.

Even better news came the Evening Standard poll showing Bozza's lead over Ken shrinking yet further to 44-37 in Boris's favour. When 2nd preferences are counted his lead is 53-47; not brilliant you might think, but this 6 point lead has come down from 12 two weeks ago and 14 two more weeks before that. If Ken comes through- though he'd hardly pat himself on the back for it- he'll do his old enemy Gordon a power of good.

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