Skipper

American University teacher, John Grant, has been commenting on my posts on the US elections. His views are especially noteworthy as they are backed up by polling work undertaken by his graduate students. I hereby reprint edited sections of his last comment.

It has to be tough being a Democrat right now. Eliot ‘Mr. Clean’ Spitzer has fallen from grace amid an anal sex/prostitution/drug scandal that makes Bill Clinton’s office fun look like child’s play (Plus there is a client 10 from Illinois), then you have a civil war brewing in the party over who to nominate, both candidates supporters (especially Hillary’s) indicate they would consider voting for McCain or not at all if their candidate does not win, then you have Obama’s former pastor and his racist, hate filled, anti-American comments among other things. The only thing the Democrats have to be happy about is the fact that more people identify themselves as Democrat, but both candidates can’t pull ahead of McCain by very much and their electoral college lead is down to near nothing and is continuing to go down. Again, something my post grad students are tapping into in their ‘deep’ polling.

Now a recent Congressional poll indicates that Democrats only have a 4% advantage over the GOP, The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if the Congressional Election were held today, 44% of American voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their district and 40% would opt for the Republican. That’s unchanged from a month ago and the third straight month that the Democrats’ lead has been in single digits. It’s also the third straight month that support for the Democrats has been at 43% or 44%. Before that, support for the Democrats had been at the 45% level or higher for ten straight months.

Take note that Democrats had a 15% advantage 4 months ago and 6 months they had anywhere from a 18% to a 27% advantage. The GOP continues to gain ground and continues to keep races at all levels of government close despite a poor economy, an unpopular president and a public that identifies more with Democrats than Republicans. Our prediction is the GOP is either going to take back control of the Senate and cut into the Democrats lead in the House or keep control of the presidency, or both. And all Bush has to do is . . . keep his mouth shut!

In addition we learn today that Obama is being badly hurt by his association with his paster Jeremaih Wright- who called on his congregation to sing 'God Damn America'. Hillary has opened up a lead on him of 49-42 in a recent Gallup poll; an earlier one had her in front by 51-35. With the Pennsylvania primary still to come, the Clinton camp must be optimistic that the introduction of 'racism for real' into the campaign is rebounding to their advantage. At the start of all this I opined the USA was not yet ready to elect a black man as president and felt they were more likely to accept a white woman. It could be, of course, that they are prepared to accept neither. McCain can be the only beneficiary of these developments.