Tuesday, March 18, 2008


Labour's Recovery Dashed

I posted a week or so again ago that Labour was making a steady recovery in the polls- trailing by only a single figure digit and having avoided any huge cock-ups for at least a few weeks. Julian Glover today analyses the ICM poll which gives Cameron a 13 point lead- a whopping 42-29 difference to follow the recent Yougov's 16 points. The detailed figures make even worse reading.

This is basically unfair of voters- but politics is not a matter of fairness as we know- as earlier polls had shown only a small proportion blamed the government for what was perceived as an international phenomenon. So why the shift?

I can hazard an educated guess- Alistair Darling and his thin gruel budget. Recognising 'turbulence in international markets' is one thing; listening to the drone of Darling's voice while he ladled new taxes on booze and the like, was another.

Voters have decided they don't like our Chancellor- and this is also so unfair as he is only doing what Gordon tells him to do in the first place. Brown will be happy that Alistair has deflected the odium to a degree, but I suspect it won't be long before the PM has to bear the brunt of it. In the meantime? Tip Boris- 12 points ahead of Ken- to win the mayor's race and expect Labour's local government bastions-if indeed any remain- to be over-run once more.

Hi there, again - things getting a little tasty over here!

It has to be tough being a Democrat right now. Eliot ‘Mr. Clean’ Spitzer has fallen from grace amid an anal sex/prostitution/drug scandal that makes Bill Clinton’s office fun look like child’s play (Plus there is a client 10 from Illinois), then you have a civil war brewing in the party over who to nominate, both candidates supporters (especially Hillary’s) indicate they would consider voting for McCain or not at all if their candidate does not win, then you have Obama’s former pastor and his racist, hate filled, anti-American comments among other things. The only thing the Democrats have to be happy about is the fact that more people identify themselves as Democrat, but both candidates can’t pull ahead of McCain by very much and their electoral college lead is down to near nothing and is continuing to go down. Again, something my post grad students are tapping into in their ‘deep’ polling.

Now a recent Congressional poll indicates that Democrats only have a 4% advantage over the GOP, The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if the Congressional Election were held today, 44% of American voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their district and 40% would opt for the Republican. That’s unchanged from a month ago and the third straight month that the Democrats’ lead has been in single digits. It’s also the third straight month that support for the Democrats has been at 43% or 44%. Before that, support for the Democrats had been at the 45% level or higher for ten straight months.

Take note that Democrats had a 15% advantage 4 months ago and 6 months they had anywhere from a 18% to a 27% advantage. The GOP continues to gain ground and continues to keep races at all levels of government close despite a poor economy, an unpopular president and a public that identifies more with Democrats than Republicans. Our prediction is the GOP is either going to take back control of the Senate and cut into the Democrats lead in the House or keep control of the presidency, or both. And all Bush has to do is . . . keep his mouth shut!
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