Skipper

I'm sorry if my picture is even more literal than usual but the political situation really is so fascinatingly poised at the moment. I've just read all the quality papers' reaction to Cameron's speech and the rough consensus seems to be that that, despite Dave's bravura no-notes-no autocue speech-the columnists were really impressed it seems- the election arithmetic has not changed, according to John Rentoul. Offering a different angle or two, Simon Jenkins says something similar.

Writing from his vantage point as the UK's top election number cruncher, John Curtice suggests Labour are by no means assured of achieving their goal of achieving a 'Tory rout'. Brown's bounce has proved 'solid and potentially durable' and the average lead for Labour over the conference season has been 8%. To equal Blair's 66 majority in 2005, Brown needs a 4% lead, so is he sitting pretty? Not really:

i) Boundary Commission changes have shaved at least 18 seats off Labour's expected haul.
ii)Voters in November might have to vote in the dark; though, as Curtice points out, they returned Labour in 1964 and 1974 on the last two occasions we had autumn elections.
iii) the polls predicted a 5% lead for Labour in 2005 yet it turned out to be only 3% on the night. What if the polls are over reporting Labour?
iv) In each of the 47 marginal seats which Labour lost at the last election new MPs have been bedding themselves in and nurturing local support. It will be no push-over ejecting them, meaning that exceeding that 66 number might prove very difficult.
v) Anything can happen during an election campaign, as Curtice points out:

Mr Brown's bounce may look durable but no party leader can be sure his party will not slip a couple of points during the course of even a short election campaign.

So, it's no shoo-in for Gordon and for a famously cautious man, it might look too risky. But maybe he's held back from quelling the speculation for so long that he cannot escape a damning accusation of cowardice, of 'choking it', if he calls a halt next week instead of firing the starting pistol as most people still expect. Either way, few can deny, let alone Labour supporters like me, that this last week has been an excellent one for David Cameron's Conservatives.

Gordon hoped election talk would rattle the Tories and further open up divisions; instead the party is more united than at any time since autumn 2005. And I'm sure the next set of polls will show a substantial narrowing of the gap with Labour. Gordon may have blown it.