Wednesday, September 19, 2007

 

Cameron Disappearing Down the Toilet



Oh Dear! And I thought the Tories had caught up with Gordon's early runaway 'bounce' poll lead. But the ICM poll in today's Guardian throws them back into political no-man's land.

1. Labour, on 40 now lead the Tories(32) by 8 points again with Lib Dems on a much improved 20. In a general election this would deliver 380 seats to Labour.

2. Even worse news for the Tories is that while Brown's approval rating(those who think he's doing a good job minus those who don't) is +35, Cameron's is -8. Even Ming musters -5. These figures are comparable to those suffered by William Hague and IDS at their lowest points.

3. Still worse, if that's possible, are the figures on policy issues. Here they have lost the lead on six issues, with Labour storming back with leads of: 13% on health; 12% on education; 3% law and order and 25% on the economy. Even on asylum and immigration they have a sliver of a lead with 1%. All this suggests a major shift back to Labour as the trusted party of government.

There's even some talk, it seems, of the autumn election idea being dusted down again but with finance and foot and mouth imponderables this is still highly unlikely in my view. But for the Conservative Party, I suspect, that if things do not improve quite quickly,(and let's not pretend that they cannot, given the febrile atmosphere of the last week) Dave could face an enraged 'Tebbitt' faction at his party conference and stormy weather until spring when nemesis might well beckon.

Comments:
It's easy to assume that a crisis will favour the opposition. But perhaps more important is how it's handled. I expected Northern Rock to hurt Labour in the short term, but to blow over.

Brown is clearly seen to have managed well and is being rewarded for that. Meanwhile Cameron can't keep his own troops in order.
 
Apart from being a bit quicker off the mark I can't think how they could have improved their reaction to the crisis.
 
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What is a free gift ? Aren't all gifts free?
 
Give me ambiguity or give me something else.
 
If ignorance is bliss, you must be orgasmic.
 
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When there's a will, I want to be in it.
 
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