Monday, February 26, 2007
Rudd Election Victory Nowhere Near in Bag
Howard is a tough competitor- the Ricky Ponting of Australian politics maybe- and he'll do his best to reel back the lead which Rudd currently enjoys. He's a bit like Ponting's team and the coming World Cup: recent heavy defeats have taken the shine off them and it's realistic to think they may not retain their title, but the bookies still offer only a miserly 10-1 on them, making them still the favourites. Rudd has some time to go and much more to do before he enters 'The Lodge', the fine house which accommodates Austrailian Prime Ministers just a few minutes walk from where I noisily(I note the frown on the person working nnext to me) tap out these thoughts in the Internet Suite of the Kirribilli Neighbourhood Centre. I just hope the election, later this year, will resemble New Labour's 1997 rather than Kinnock's 19987 or 1992.
Mike Ion has pleaded in a comment on my last post that I stop posting from Oz as he is fed up of feeling jealous after reading about the sun, sand, food and English cricketing successes(!). Well, it's still a great palce and a great holiday but he might allow himself a quiet smile of schadenfreude when he hears that we've had cloud and rain plus a pyrtechnic thunder storm two nights ago. And it's still cloudy today too...
As for the rest, I still trust Howard will win. Iraq isn't the issue you hope it to be Skipper(at least not with the Australian people). They have a prosperous economy and by and large the people are in tune with the kind of conservative ideas of Howard(indeed most are a damn sight more conservative).
Michael. Odds were given to me by a mate who bets all the time but i agree they seem way off beam. As for Oz political culture, my experience tends to support what you say, but there must be some explanation why so many of the constituent states are ruled by Labor Party governments. On balance I think the culture is about the same as back home. Amazing how much of Oz life harks back to the old country too- the Country Woman's Association seems just like the WI-Mother's Union to me with scone making and cooking classes.
You're right re odds- i've just checked and Oz are 3-1; surprisingly England are fourth favourites and S.Africa seconds.
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