Thursday, October 05, 2006


A Good Week for Tony at Bournemouth Conference

Well, it was a very average week for the Tories in Bournemouth in the end but a good one for Tony Blair it would seem. According to Michael White, 'At times New Toryism sounds dangerously like Blairism minus Blair'. Will Woodward, furthermore, reports a debateon international aid where guest apeakers praised Blair and the achievements of his government; surely that wasn't in the party managers' script? And finally, Dave himself 'spoke movingly about a young idealistic leader of 12 years ago, wanting to change his party, wanting to change the country.' Who was he talking about? Tony Blair of course.

Perhaps more worrying for the Tories was the Yougov poll of two days ago where Tony King explained why 'The Tories don't lead Labour by 15 Points' as perhaps they should at this point in the electoral cycle. It seems, that while the majority like Dave, most people are still unclear what a Cameron government would be like and nearly as many don't trust them to 'run public services'. Even more tellingly, Yougov asks respondents to place themselves and politicians on a Left-Right scale.

In 2004 Howard and his party were far right of centre. 'Now they still place the Conservative party as a whole far to the right but with Cameron considerably closer to the centre. By contrast both Blair, Brown and Labour as well as the Lib Dems are far closer to the centre of political gravity. What's the big deal? Well, 'two thirds of voters place themselves either in the political centre or very close to it... [this] is almost certainly where the next general election is going to be fought and won.' It'll be interesting to see whether the Tories' get a conference 'bounce' and whether it is big enough to shift them off the present plateau of some 38 points-too low to win an election- on which they seem stuck.

You might be right about Dave's limits, but remember that as he positions himself alongside Blair, he also has some distinct advantages which voters will have in mind:

1. He didn't actually take the UK into Iraq (even though he might have supported the war)

2. He hasn't been up to his neck in sleaze and corruption for the last two years.
1. He didn't actually take the UK into Iraq (even though he might have supported the war)

Great! Cameron and the Tories set to benefit from a policy that they agreed with and freely admit they would have done exactly the same if they were in government.
Well done dreadnought, you got it. Of course Cameron will benefit from not ACTUALLY having taken Britain to war, and so he should. Politic choices are all relative between the main parties, none is perfect. The Tories are not faultless - if you accept the strange notion that intervention inIraq hasn't been for the best. But they will outscore Labour. C'est la vie.
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