Wednesday, September 28, 2005

 

Blair's future as leader

I know I shouldn't indulge in 'I told you so' type feelings but allow me to remind us of one of my earliest posts, just after the election:
'I am emboldened to offer my own predictions regarding Blair's future. I make two predictions. First, that the present febrile atmosphere in which accusations of loss of trust and authority swirl and the Prime Minister is called upon to get himself hence, will not last long. I predict that by the autumn it will be business as usual with Blair just as comfortably ensconced in Number 10 as he ever was.

Secondly, I predict that Blair will stay rather longer than many people are suggesting. It might be best for the party and even for the country that he go sooner rather than later, but politics, it seems to me, is much more of an individual sport than a team game and Blair is still at the wicket and scoring the runs.'

The Brighton conference seems to be bearing out my prediction with Blair showing he has lots of lead left in his pencil. Some of this will be to ensure his government will be taken seriously, rather thwan written off as 'tired' but the commentators must also be right that he is telling Gordon that he will ahve to wait a bit- possibly a lot- longer. Brown's speech seemed a bit too assuming to me- all that stuff about touring the country and 'listening'. It will have infuriated the Blair camp and made them more than ever determined to dish his hopes of an early transfer.

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