Skipper

Making predictions in politics is a fraught business and I'm very much aware of the delicious schadenfreude I enjoy reading those 'Hackwatch' reviews in Private Eye when the future gazing of the likes of William Rees Mogg are held up for ridicule. But after getting the election result just about right and actually winning a bet on the turnout figure with two mates, I am emboldened to offer my own predictions regarding Blair's future. I make two predictions. First, that the present febrile atmosphere in which accusations of loss of trust and authority swirl and the Prime Minister is called upon to get himself hence, will not last long. I predict that by the autumn it will be business as usual with Blair just as comfortably ensconced in Number 10 as he ever was.

Secondly, I predict that Blair will stay rather longer than many people are suggesting. It might be best for the party and even for the country that he go sooner rather than later, but politics, it seems to me, is much more of an individual sport than a team game and Blair is the man at the crease who is still scoring runs. Moreover, replacing an in situ leader is not easy for Labour; it requires 20% of MPs to support such a move plus approval by two thirds of the annual conference. So I reckon he'll be there for more than half of the parliamentary term, which these days is four years. So Gordon need not order the removal men until summer 2007 according to my reasoning. Unless, of course, events intervene...